Journal from Kotnik


One thing I've been thinking about lately is what will be the effect when bot accounts migrate from #Twitter to #Mastodon instances as well.

For those new to the subject, bots (they're not really robots) are a thing in #Serbia on all social media, although it's not only Serbian problem. The government employs people to either drive the conversations away from criticizing it, or to hush down accounts using ad-hominem attacks, insults, and threats of violence.

Dealing with them is really hard, since the accounts are not automated, and there are thousands and thousands of real people constantly creating new ones and using them for as long as they can. If the Twitter collapses, and Mastodon becomes new world forum, this will be a real threat.

Mastodon moderators can not beat an army of determined and evil people constantly churning attacks. I can hardly imagine Serbian government creating own instance for bot purposes, since that would be too easy to block. And the end results I can see from this perspective is further locking down of #Fediverse, private instances that don't cooperate, or complete breakdown and migration to something else.

I might as well be completely wrong, and the existing tools to deal with malice would suffice. Time will tell.

But, in a shortwhile, it will be very interesting especially with cooperating moderators and instance owners, inability to research Twitter's data is real problem.

Back to #SundayReading! These weeks I spent nearly all of my free time following events around Russian invasion of #Ukraine, so here are few articles that I found insightful and worth re-reading.

1. The first is the conversation with Stephen Kotkin who is giving us the best overview of the nature of Russian, or more precisely Putin's, regime. It is very enlightening to read what scholars and historians think since they spent a lot of time looking for patterns, and Kotkin is not shy from sharing his knowledge. As a teaser, he recites the most succinct definition of what The West is:

The West is a series of institutions and values. The West is not a geographical place. Russia is European, but not Western. Japan is Western, but not European. “Western” means rule of law, democracy, private property, open markets, respect for the individual, diversity, pluralism of opinion, and all the other freedoms that we enjoy, which we sometimes take for granted. We sometimes forget where they came from. But that’s what the West is.

2. The second one is also a conversation, again with a scholar, but this time it's an anthropologist, Ukranian Volodymyr Artiukh. Very precise introduction to the events currently unfolding from the insider's perspective.

The sanctions will not stop the war. Only tanks and guns can stop tanks and guns.

3. And now a Twitter thread by Kamil Galeev (he has a lot of Twitter threads dense with information, most probably not all of it correct, but very engaging and thought provoking). Here he develops an interesting concept where the growth of complex industries influences power balance in, what is currently case for Russia, mafia or cartel-like state. This resonated in me profoundly since I finally found an explanation of what is actually on-going in my home country #Serbia the last few decades, and it started to unravel really fast in the last ten years: Serbian government seems to actively undermine and works to destroy everything that is creating additional value and focuses on pure resource extraction, ore mining in short. A lot of people, me included until recently, can not comprehend why would a government want to practically cripple it's own country; it seems so non-intuitive that folks just ignore it happening before their own eyes. But Galeev's concept makes it all logical, rational.

The more mafia-like you are, the simpler you are, the less able to administer complex economic activities. If you engage in them, power balance within your structure will change and former strongmen might become irrelevant. Mafia can remain mafia only feeding of something simple. Extractive businesses are relatively simple in a sense that they can be administered by mafia for very long and still produce value. Of course they're being destroyed too but in the long run, so nobody cares. Complex businesses will be destroyed immediately.

4. And finally, something not related to the invasion of Ukraine, a short piece by Tyler Cowen giving advice on how to approach and weight views and on-going events. Timeless and preciously needed.

Look for strong analytical abilities, and if you don’t see it, run the other way.

Until the next time.

At this point I don't think anyone needs to write long introduction on Russia invading #Ukraine. In the world abundant with information and relatively clear way to judge the sources one can be uninformed only if one chose to be.

Many people in my home country #Serbia chose to ignore the reality. Or are just evil, I don't know how else to explain all this.

My Serbia didn't officially condemn the invasion. Look at the map below, look at all those countries that didn't express disgust and worry after the invasion:


Yes, that's right, there are only two in whole of Europe, Belarus and Serbia. Most of the people in the country see the event completely upside-down: it's actually Ukraine that attacked Russia, so it had to defend itself! If you scratch below the surface during conversation you'll get regular mixture of reality denial and whataboutism.

The biggest independent political TV show hosted RussiaToday editor who was allowed to spew out lies and disinfo. Serbia is the only country that didn't have rallies of support for the people of Ukraine, but instead rallies of support for Russian troops – idiots taped letter Z on their cars, drove around hoisting Russian flags and blasting nationalistic music. Belgrade is the only capital in Europe that did that, that allowed that to happen!

Then there was a football match, the biggest in the league where two biggest teams in the capital play against the each other, the derby of Belgrade. Any idea what happened? They did this:

Belgrade stadium

Graveyard in colors of the Ukrainian flag. TV crews reported Serbian hooligans hosted supporters (sic!) of Moscow's Spartak football club (they had one fun round-trip), one of them was interviewed and he was holding big cloth with “Serbia – Russia” written on it. In English. Yes, that's a Russian in another country that uses Cyrillic script as well. It is nothing but a message out.

And make no mistake about it, it is a message, perhaps the strongest one. It's a public secret in Serbia that football hooligans are the arm of the government, they're used to do all kind of dirty work (demolish buildings during the night, break protests, ...) in exchange of being let to do illegal drug distribution, among other activities. Everyone in Serbia knows that this wouldn't have happened unless the State wanted to. It's a message to likewise sociopaths. It's appalling.

The last door towards European integration of Serbia are closed now, I am certain of it. Serbian government and, to great extent, her people too chose to be on the wrong side of the history. Again.